Thursday, January 19, 2012

Links of the Future - Culture Shock Edition

Welcome to Thursday, January the 19th, 2012, traveler. It's a brave new world. Brace yourself for some serious culture shock.
Ever wondered what it would be like to have a trophy wife?

This is a pretty funny 'informational' flyer: So... You've Been Indefinitely Detained!

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

3 Links: SOPA law won't make the judicial cut; how to learn eleven languages; and why Chinese football sucks

US courts unlikely to give SOPA a pass even if Congress does

Today marks a massive, internet-wide protest against two internet censorship bills currently before the US Congress: SOPA and PROTECT-IP. Wikipedia has blacked out its English language website, Google has blacked out its ubiquitous logo, and even that venerable bastion of cute cats on the internet has joined the protest.

At this point it looks like no legislator in their right mind would touch these bills with a ten-foot-pole. House sponsors are already ripping out some of the most offensive and dangerous provisions of SOPA and the Senate looks all set to kill their version of the bill with procedural 'discussions' that will probably lead exactly nowhere. On top of all this, the Whitehouse has voiced its disapproval.

But suppose, just suppose that somehow SOPA or something very like it were to pass both houses of Congress and be signed off by the President. Would the bill have a chance against the inevitable legal challenges that would follow?

Ars Technica says no: the courts have already spent a decade shooting down a similarly over-broad censorship law called the Child Online Protection Act, or COPA:
From the get-go, the case did not go well for the government. A judge for the Eastern District easily saw matters from the plaintiffs' perspective. COPA would deny access to legitimate content to adults who did not possess credit cards, and put serious interactive content behind verification walls, he noted.
"Evidence presented to this Court is likely to establish at trial that the implementation of credit card or adult verification screens in front of material that is harmful to minors may deter users from accessing such materials and that the loss of users of such material may affect the speakers' economic ability to provide such communications," Justice Lowell A. Reed wrote in a preliminary injunction against the law.
In addition, Reed challenged the legislation's insistence that it was the least burdensome approach to the problem. He invoked a crucial Supreme Court decision to bolster his argument—the "least restrictive means" standard outlined in Elrod v. Burns (1973): "If the State has open to it a less drastic way of satisfying its legitimate interests, it may not choose a legislative scheme that broadly stifles the exercise of fundamental personal liberties."
It is "not apparent" to this court that the government can prove that COPA is the least restrictive means available for protecting minors from objectionable content on the 'Net, Reed concluded.
Read the whole thing.

Are there really people who know dozens of languages?

Journalist slash linguist Michael Erard has written a book about his efforts to track down some of those legendary individuals who supposedly speak eleven, twelve or even dozens of languages - fluently.

CARDINAL MEZZOFANTI of Bologna was a secular saint. Though he never performed the kind of miracle needed to be officially canonised, his power was close to unearthly. Mezzofanti was said to speak 72 languages. Or 50. Or to have fully mastered 30. No one was certain of the true figure, but it was a lot. Visitors flocked from all corners of Europe to test him and came away stunned. He could switch between languages with ease. Two condemned prisoners were due to be executed, but no one knew their language to hear their confession. Mezzofanti learned it in a night, heard their sins the next morning and saved them from hell.
 Thus begins a very interesting piece from The Economist.

Mr Erard says that true hyperpolyglottery begins at about 11 languages, and that while legends abound, tried and tested exemplars are few. Ziad Fazah, raised in Lebanon and now living in Brazil, once held the Guinness world record for 58 languages. But when surprised on a Chilean television show by native speakers, he utterly flubbed questions in Finnish, Mandarin, Farsi and Russian (including “What day is it today?” in Russian), a failure that lives in infamy on YouTube. Perhaps he was a fraud; perhaps he simply had a miserable day. Hyperpolyglots must warm up or “prime” their weaker languages, with a few hours’ or days’ practice, to use them comfortably. Switching quickly between more than around six or seven is near-impossible even for the most gifted.
 OK, so eleven languages might be less impressive than fifty but most us stumble badly when it comes to picking up even one extra language. Does Mr. Erard figure the key to hyperpolyglottery?
At the end of his story, however, he finds a surprise in Mezzofanti’s archive: flashcards. Stacks of them, in Georgian, Hungarian, Arabic, Algonquin and nine other tongues. The world’s most celebrated hyperpolyglot relied on the same tools given to first-year language-learners today. The conclusion? Hyperpolyglots may begin with talent, but they aren’t geniuses. They simply enjoy tasks that are drudgery to normal people. The talent and enjoyment drive a virtuous cycle that pushes them to feats others simply shake their heads at, admiration mixed with no small amount of incomprehension.
The whole thing is here.

Why a country of 1.6 billion people can't produce a decent football (soccer) team

This is one of those simple questions with answers that have profound implications. Chinese people love football. There are 1.6 billion Chinese people. Why can't China produce a single star player? Why is their national team a national joke?

One more from The Economist:


In a country so proud of its global stature, football is a painful national joke. Perhaps because Chinese fans love the sport madly and want desperately for their nation to succeed at it, football is the common reference point by which people understand and measure failure. When, in 2008, milk powder from the Chinese company Sanlu was found to have been tainted with melamine, causing a national scandal, the joke was: “Sanlu milk, the exclusive milk of the Chinese national football team!”
Everyone is free to take aim, and publicly. When China was dispatched 2-0 by Belgium in the 2008 Olympics in Beijing (pictured above), a presenter on national CCTV said: “The Chinese football team decided to get out quickly, so as not to affect the people’s mood while they watch the Olympics.” Chinese fans chanted for the ouster of the head of China’s Football Association, Xie Yalong. The authorities sacked Mr Xie shortly after the games.
All this hints at something rather unique and powerful about the place of football in Chinese society. It is, like all organised sport in China, ultimately the domain of the government; so, according to the Communist Party’s normal methods, senior football officials should be provided at least some protection from scrutiny. In general the secretive state machinery of sport is shielded from public inspection, as it manufactures medal-winning Olympic athletes in dozens of disciplines. Chinese football, though, is so flagrantly and undeniably terrible and corrupt that all potshots are allowed: at officials, referees, owners and players—even, implicitly, at the heart of the communist system itself.
Solving the riddle of why Chinese football is so awful becomes, then, a subversive inquiry. It involves unravelling much of what might be wrong with China and its politics. Every Chinese citizen who cares about football participates in this subversion, each with some theory—blaming the schools, the scarcity of pitches, the state’s emphasis on individual over team sport, its ruthless treatment of athletes, the one-child policy, bribery and the corrosive influence of gambling. Most lead back to the same conclusion: the root cause is the system.
To find out why The Economist thinks that a country that is able to virtually mine gold medals at the Olympic Games can't master a team sport, you should read the whole thing.


Wednesday, January 11, 2012

The War on Cancer... Phobia

'Cancer' is a scary word. Many patients consider it to be equivalent to a death sentence. And it's not just any form of death, it's a terrifying, excruciatingly painful one that attacks without warning and is impervious to all treatment.

Isn't it?

David Ropeik writing for The Crux gives the following statistics:

“Cancer” is no longer the automatic death sentence it was once feared to be. From 1990 to 2010 the overall death rate from cancer in the U.S.has dropped 22% in men and 14% in women. (Incidence in the U.S. has stayed about the same.) In the U.K., the male mortality rate has dropped 26% and the female rate has declined 16% since 1980, (even while the incidence rate in the UK have increased 22%).
 OK, so cancer isn't quite the killer it used to be (Ropeik notes that in the US it actually plays second fiddle to heart disease). But it's still bad and should be treated aggressively when identified, right?
If you were to be diagnosed with cancer, how do you think you would feel? It would depend on the type of cancer of course, but there’s a good chance that no matter the details, the word “cancer” would make the diagnosis much more frightening. Frightening enough, in fact, to do you as much harm, or more, than the disease itself.  There is no question that in many cases, we are cancer-phobic, more afraid of the disease than the medical evidence says we need to be, and that fear alone can be bad for our health. As much as we need to understand cancer itself, we need to recognize and understand this risk, the risk of cancer phobia, in order to avoid all of what this awful disease can do to us.
 ...
Many prostate cancers grow so slowly they don’t need to be treated right away…the unnecessary treatment causes significant harm…and one of the reasons nine men out of ten men diagnosed with slow-growing prostate cancer accept, indeed choose these unnecessary harms, is because “cancer” sounds scary.
Consider more evidence for cancer phobia. In “Overdiagnosis in Cancer,” doctors at Dartmouth classified “25% of mammographically detected breast cancers, 50% of chest x-ray and/or sputum-detected lung cancers, and 60% of prostate-specific antigen–detected prostate cancers,” as “overdiagnosed,” which they defined as “1. The cancer never progresses (or, in fact, regresses) or 2. The cancer progresses slowly enough that the patient dies of other causes before the cancer becomes symptomatic.” The doctors described the negative health effects such patients suffer from a range of treatments that often involve radical surgery and noted; “Although such patients cannot benefit from unnecessary treatment, they can be harmed.”
 Ropeik's conclusion (and this is apparently also the opinion of the National Institute for Health) is that 'cancer' needs better PR.
We have learned an immense amount about cancer, allowing us to treat, or even prevent, some types that used to be fatal. But we have also learned a great deal about the psychology of risk perception and why our fears often don’t match the evidence. We are failing to use that knowledge to protect ourselves from the significant, tangible health risks of our innately subjective risk perception system. The proposal of the NIH panel to replace the “C” word with something else that is medically honest but emotionally less frightening, is a tiny first step in the right direction, to open a new front in the War on Cancer, the battle against cancer phobia.
I have no doubt that the idea that a diagnosis of cancer should be treated as anything less than a DEFCON 1 situation will horrify many. But the truth is that so often the cure is literally worse than the disease. Unnecessary surgeries and treatments can drastically reduce quality of life, and even kill you. Because we have been ingrained with such a deep horror of cancer we make personal health decisions that are dangerous and costly.

Maybe it is time to re-brand cancer.

Read the entire article here.

And don't forget that demographically speaking, cancer is a good problem to have.

Friday, January 6, 2012

The Dark Art of Computer Programming

Over at Marginal Revolution a commentor asked Why are some programmers paid more than others?
I’m curious about the reasons for the wide regional variation in wages for software engineers. Computer software would seem to be the ultimate tradeable good, as it can be sent instantly around the world at zero cost. I’m a computer programmer and have recently been looking into employment opportunities in East Asia, and was surprised to find that typical wages for programmers varied by as much as a factor of 5, with the US and Japan at the upper extreme and mainland China at the lower extreme. Wages in Singapore are less than half of US wages, despite a similar per-capita GDP. Wages in Shenzhen are less than half of what they are in Hong Kong, just an hour’s train ride away.

What’s going on here? Why do firms continue to hire overpriced American and Japanese software engineers when they can get them for half price in Hong Kong, even less in Singapore and Taiwan, and at a 75-80% discount in China? I’ve had some people tell me that American and Japanese programmers are just better, but I’m skeptical of this, especially considering the difficulty level of the interviews I had in Shenzhen and Hong Kong.
There were lots of responses in the comments that are worth reading. One commonly cited factor was the communications barrier:
Dan Dostal: As a software engineer who is recently surrounded by H1Bs, one important point is the cost of translation. I as an American can talk to the business producer and tech lead in their native tongues and societal norms. The cost to keep me on board is roughly equivalent to my wages + equipment. The H1Bs make less than I do because their cost is wages + equipment + additional time for communications. I’ve only been here for 2 months and already I’ve been fought over by PMs who want me over the Indians because they can communicate efficiently with me. Perhaps the real cost is on the PM’s inability to communicate effectively across the language/culture barriers, but as I have yet to meet a PM with that ability, I’m not ready to place the cost there.

Now it seems you’re more interested in why there is less out-sourcing. And although infrastructure for outsourcing is non-trivial, it’s an initial cost with trivial rent. However, it goes straight back to the language/culture barrier. Even if HR is comfortable (and often they are not), communication over the internet is less effective than in person. Now multiple that problem with the language/culture problem and tack on the drastically lesser communications because of timezone issues and even a back-of-the-envelope calculation will show that paying me $40/hour here in Oregon is a better cost than paying someone around the world $10/hour. And if anyone is out-sourcing to Hong Kong they are doing it wrong. I would suspect programmers in Hong Kong work for Hong Kong companies.

A number of responses pointed out that computer programming is much more than simply a technical discipline:
Newt: Of course, programming is not a technical discipline. It is a creative and social act. The essence is not moving bits around but understanding the users and their quirks and mistakes. Machines have to adapt to men, not the other way around. Programmers need to be in close contact with their customers to do a good job. The business process, the cultural context, the hopes and dreams of the users add up to a living system that software has to grow into, not an engineering specification.

Craig: Computer programmers are communicators: translators, interviewers, readers, writers. It is not entirely fair to say that ours is not a technical discipline, because there is a bit of technical work, but it is far more important to be a good communicator than a good technician.

Systems Analysts, such as yours truly, are often former programmers who have found they can do their jobs even better if they don’t actually write code: if they focus exclusively on the human-to-human communication parts of the job.

Tim goes a step further and says that programming is not a technical discipline at all, but an art:

As a writer and a programmer I can tell you it’s almost certainly because programming is essentially creative-writing. You could say the same thing about books. In this age of electronic books why can some books cost $.50 and some $500? Exactly the same reasons. There are Steven King’s in programming. There are Faulkner’s. And there are tons of self-published authors with little command of spelling or grammar.
 A few commentors cite management culture. I believe this is very important:
Ross W: One big complementary factor is management. The rise of Agile software development as a system for productivity enhancement has been difficult to implement in cultural environments that place great importance on hierarchy and rigid roles for managers and their subordinates. Agile requires individual programmers to be much more involved in planning and decision making, leaving the manager to a role more akin to that of a coordinator. American culture is well suited to this approach and it has paid off well, but I often see it fall apart in other cultural contexts.

More generally, here is a test: tell your manager her/his idea is wrong in front of a group, and walk through step by step why it is wrong in 10 different ways. Then show why your idea is better. If you can’t do that, the product will suffer.

Sigivald adds: Also an excellent point – I have a boss. He is quite smart and usually right about things, but also occasionally completely wrong.

I can tell him “you’re smoking crack” (I, in fact, often literally use those words) and, with a good argument, get him to change his mind, and nobody gets upset.

I shudder to think what kind of anti-productivity we’d have if nobody could do that…
Numerous commentors claim that there are huge differences in competency between programmers in the same field:
James Moore: The skills of software people vary widely. People usually talk about the good people being 10x better than the mediocre ones, and the bad ones have negative productivity. It’s hard enough to figure out whether or not someone’s good when you’re sitting with them and don’t have to deal with things like language barriers. Hiring software people is _HARD_; hiring software people remotely is even harder. An 80% discount isn’t interesting if you can’t figure out where the person is on the “smart and gets things done” scale. (http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2007/06/05.html)

Mike: As many other people in these comments have noted, programmers are not a commodity good. The difference between a good programmer and a bad programmer is huge, and more importantly, is often inherent in the programmer’s mental models or otherwise deeply-rooted, and very difficult to overcome even with good training and management, let alone bad/remote/outsourced management. Of course, not all American programmers are good, but the good ones are definitely paid more and bring up the average price for American programmers.

Ron Strong: Two big reasons for the wide range in salaries.

First, there is a huge difference in the productivity of average and very good programmers. The classical view in the industry is that the difference is 10 to 1 between average and a very good coder. A couple years ago Alan Eustace, a Google VP of engineering, claimed the difference was 300 to 1. My guess after 20 years of software development is somewhere in between. Most programmers are quite mediocre. You can throw huge numbers of them into a project and not see the kind of progress that occurs with the addition of one really good coder.

Second, there are big differences in understanding of the product domain. A really good US based programmer is likely to have a far better feel for the business rules that he’s trying to implement. For instance, suppose you’re putting together a project that involves finance. You might find a programmer in India who has solid technical skills, but is clueless concerning accounting. A developer with a basic understanding of the product domain is going to be a lot more productive than one who has no understanding of the underlying product.
 A commentor who identifies himself as "Software Company Owner" posted the following:
I own a software company — with twelve software engineers on staff. 8 local, 4 overseas.

Specifically to outsourcing to China — we would never outsource to a Chinese development team because of the lack of respect for intellectual property. Way too many horror stories from friends of mine who’ve seen multi-million dollar investments in software developed in China, only to see the same code (line-for-line) a month later being sold by a new State-owned company.

Specifically to outsourcing to India — Speaking from multiple experiences, working with remote Indian (and Pakistan) teams takes a LOT of hand holding to ensure quality. It takes a lot of time and costs a lot to manage outsourcing. This is often the case when there is a cultural divide.

Specifically to hiring locally in the USA — nothing beats having your development teams sitting in the same offices. The marginal cost savings of outsourcing often do not scale well as teams grow in size. Plus, the best talent often wants to live here and are often willing to immigrate.

My two favorite countries for outsourcing – Russia and the Philippines. But nothing beats a good locally based developer who you can sit down with face-to-face every day.
TallDave adds:
As an American programmer who works with foreign imports, I’ll chime in:
1) The ESL barrier is often a bigger problem that you’d think, moving from functional design to technical design to code without losing meaning can be a challenge. Americans who are able to do all three are very valuable. 2) Cultural differences also matter. Some of these can work in favor of Asians, but not all — American software programmers are better at providing creative solutions in my experience. Shame cultures tend to struggle in some situations where intellectual honesty is of paramount importance. 3) Credentials have an effect too. A Master’s degree or a business cert like CPA seem to make a large difference in earning power.

'I also second Mike’s point above, and James’ point 1 is particularly important.

Finally, regarding the interviews — per 2 above, Chinese programmers particularly tend to be very good at memorizing technical answers, but less good at innovation. This matters more in some contexts than others, of course.
I've been a web-programmer for a decade now. Before that I got my four-year Bachelors in Computer Science. In the course of earning my degree they taught us how to write assembly boot-loaders, compilers and operating systems. Highly technical stuff. We always joked that they were preparing us to rewrite computer software from the ground up should the apocalypse occur.


In my actual career I'm a web programmer. I use a wide suite of different technologies on a daily basis. Math and arcane theory about finite state machines matter a lot less to me than being able to understand a client's needs and select and quickly implement a technology that will meet those needs. I've found that the 'best' programmers in the modern work place are not those who can write 1000 lines of assembly code in a day but those who have a broad-based knowledge of a lot of different tools and technologies and know how to find information quickly when they don't know something (which is often).


Here was my comment:
I had a job a couple years ago where for cost reasons the company decided our US-based team could only hire new programmers in Singapore. It was a nightmare. Besides the timezone and communications issues, we had a great deal of trouble finding quality programmers who didn’t require us to constantly hold their hands and recheck their work. We had programmers who would write exactly the code they were instructed to write and then send it to us without even bothering to verify that it ran.

Management suggested that we hand off the really easy pieces of the project to the Asian programmers but these pieces were all things we could write ourselves very quickly. We would spend more time explaining it to the Singapore guys and checking their work then we would spend writing it ourselves. It was the hard parts that we really needed to be able to hand off, but the Singapore team simply didn’t have the skillsets to handle that stuff.

The number one issue with the programmers in Singapore was simply that they did not do creative problem solving. The most competent of them could write a program that delivered, in the most literal fashion possible, what you had asked. But the ability to step back from the problem and ask questions like “Is it efficient? Is it maintainable? Will it meet the clients’ needs in a broad sense?” was virtually nonexistent.

Hiring was also a big, big problem. We would ask a general question over the phone, there would be a brief pause, and then we would get a word-for-word quote of some piece of Microsoft documentation. I have no idea if they had memorized all this stuff beforehand or were just really fast Googlers. Eventually we began requiring candidates to actually be present in the Singapore office when we conducted the phone interview with them so that we could verify that they were not reading their answers out of a manual.

Cost-saving corporate managers have attempted to reduce code writing to a rote technical skill which can be performed anywhere by anyone, but programming is simply not amenable to this approach, at least not yet. Until the tools get a lot, lot smarter, writing programs will continue to require non-fungible abilities such as creative thinking, adaptability, big-picture thinking and wide-ranging generalized knowledge of technical subjects. Even the idea that good programmers can be produced by a four-year degree program is illusory. Good programmers must be trained practically from birth. Of course very few parents are sitting their five-year-old down “C in a Nutshell,” but Western parenting would seem to currently have the advantage when it comes to imparting the critical mindsets necessary for high level abstract problem solving.
The truth is, I don't believe that Americans or Westerners in general have any sort of genetic advantage when it comes to fields such as programming. But culture is vastly important. A culture that emphasizes freedom and creativity and deemphasizes hierarchial, authoritarian management is more likely to produce individuals who are creative, highly adaptable, open to new ideas and willing to experiment to see what works. Failure is an option for such individuals, and this is important because programming is all about failure.

Every programmer and manager starts with a plan, but when that plan hits a wall the team that is willing to step back, consider different approaches, and try them is the team that will be successful. The team that continues to beat its head futilely against the problem because management is wedded to a specific approach will experience cost overruns and produce an inferior product.

And of course all the technical prowess in the world will not help you if the software you deliver does not meet the customer's needs. Delivering a product that is useful to the customer is the greatest challenge of all. Customers are generally unable to describe what exactly it is that they need. After all if they could they would have built it themselves. It is critical to spend time with the customer learning their business processes and then to go through constant interations of the software to see what helps them and what slows them down.

Communication is important, face-to-face communication doubly so. And again the willingness to accept 'failure' and recalibrate accordingly to deliver a better product is critical.

When I meet someone interested in programming they always ask me "How many languages do you know?" I don't know - a lot? Learning new languages is trivial. The important thing is that I have a grasp of what technologies are available and whether they present viable solutions for my customer. And when something isn't working I (and my manager!) are willing to let it go and try something different.

If someone comes up with a way to commodify that, let me know.

Monday, December 12, 2011

Links of the Future

Greetings traveler, welcome to Monday the 12th, 2011. You're just in time. This may be the week we find the Higgs Boson.

This NYT article on  Kohler's $6,400 'toilet of the future' is hysterical. It's Dave Barry-grade stuff. Elsewhere, New York Magazine identifies a new leading indicator for the economy: The Hot Waitress Index.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

When Do Doctors Refuse Medical Care?


Answer: When they're dying.

Saw this piece via Tyler Cowen @ Marginal Revolution. It is both thought provoking and beautiful. The site that hosts this article has been experiencing slow response times, so I'm going to excerpt a large chunk. But please go read it yourself, if you are able.

It's called How Doctors Die.

Years ago, Charlie, a highly respected orthopedist and a mentor of mine, found a lump in his stomach. He had a surgeon explore the area, and the diagnosis was pancreatic cancer. This surgeon was one of the best in the country. He had even invented a new procedure for this exact cancer that could triple a patient’s five-year-survival odds—from 5 percent to 15 percent—albeit with a poor quality of life. Charlie was uninterested. He went home the next day, closed his practice, and never set foot in a hospital again. He focused on spending time with family and feeling as good as possible. Several months later, he died at home. He got no chemotherapy, radiation, or surgical treatment. Medicare didn’t spend much on him.
It’s not a frequent topic of discussion, but doctors die, too. And they don’t die like the rest of us. What’s unusual about them is not how much treatment they get compared to most Americans, but how little. For all the time they spend fending off the deaths of others, they tend to be fairly serene when faced with death themselves. They know exactly what is going to happen, they know the choices, and they generally have access to any sort of medical care they could want. But they go gently.
...
Almost all medical professionals have seen what we call “futile care” being performed on people. That’s when doctors bring the cutting edge of technology to bear on a grievously ill person near the end of life. The patient will get cut open, perforated with tubes, hooked up to machines, and assaulted with drugs. All of this occurs in the Intensive Care Unit at a cost of tens of thousands of dollars a day. What it buys is misery we would not inflict on a terrorist. I cannot count the number of times fellow physicians have told me, in words that vary only slightly, “Promise me if you find me like this that you’ll kill me.” They mean it. Some medical personnel wear medallions stamped “NO CODE” to tell physicians not to perform CPR on them. I have even seen it as a tattoo.
To administer medical care that makes people suffer is anguishing. Physicians are trained to gather information without revealing any of their own feelings, but in private, among fellow doctors, they’ll vent. “How can anyone do that to their family members?” they’ll ask. I suspect it’s one reason physicians have higher rates of alcohol abuse and depression than professionals in most other fields. I know it’s one reason I stopped participating in hospital care for the last 10 years of my practice.
How has it come to this—that doctors administer so much care that they wouldn’t want for themselves? The simple, or not-so-simple, answer is this: patients, doctors, and the system.
To see how patients play a role, imagine a scenario in which someone has lost consciousness and been admitted to an emergency room. As is so often the case, no one has made a plan for this situation, and shocked and scared family members find themselves caught up in a maze of choices. They’re overwhelmed. When doctors ask if they want “everything” done, they answer yes. Then the nightmare begins. Sometimes, a family really means “do everything,” but often they just mean “do everything that’s reasonable.” The problem is that they may not know what’s reasonable, nor, in their confusion and sorrow, will they ask about it or hear what a physician may be telling them. For their part, doctors told to do “everything” will do it, whether it is reasonable or not.
The above scenario is a common one. Feeding into the problem are unrealistic expectations of what doctors can accomplish. Many people think of CPR as a reliable lifesaver when, in fact, the results are usually poor. I’ve had hundreds of people brought to me in the emergency room after getting CPR. Exactly one, a healthy man who’d had no heart troubles (for those who want specifics, he had a “tension pneumothorax”), walked out of the hospital. If a patient suffers from severe illness, old age, or a terminal disease, the odds of a good outcome from CPR are infinitesimal, while the odds of suffering are overwhelming. Poor knowledge and misguided expectations lead to a lot of bad decisions.
...
But doctors still don’t over-treat themselves. They see the consequences of this constantly. Almost anyone can find a way to die in peace at home, and pain can be managed better than ever. Hospice care, which focuses on providing terminally ill patients with comfort and dignity rather than on futile cures, provides most people with much better final days. Amazingly, studies have found that people placed in hospice care often live longer than people with the same disease who are seeking active cures. I was struck to hear on the radio recently that the famous reporter Tom Wicker had “died peacefully at home, surrounded by his family.” Such stories are, thankfully, increasingly common.
Read the rest here.


I have a close friend who is a doctor. For a while we were roommates while he worked at a local hospital. He was deeply frustrated by the expensive and pointless medical procedures that they routinely performed on the terminally ill and the dying elderly. These people typically had very poor prognoses. Hundreds of thousands would be spent on procedures that would extend their lives by a few months at most. And that short time would be spent in a hospital bed with tubes routing vital functions through machinery. Then they would die anyway. "Futile care" indeed.

I don't know if it's really the case, but my friend felt that these expensive and ultimately pointless procedures were responsible for a big chunk of the rising costs of medical care.

I imagine that very few people want to spend their final weeks or months eating through a tube. So why do they choose things like this for their loved ones? The author offers up a few possible reasons. I think that part of the answer is that death has become unpalatable to us. We want to control it or cure it, but we can't. Often we just make it worse.

During the last century, medical science plucked a lot of low-hanging fruit. It eradicated smallpox, brought down infant mortality and stopped people dying of the common flu. But there is still a lot about our own biology that we don't understand.  The human body is a complex network of non-linear systems all feeding back into each other. The exact mechanisms for things like chronic pain, irritable bowel syndrome and aging continue to evade us. And that includes the mechanisms for aging and death.

But we still want to believe that there's a magic pill that can cure everything. There isn't.

How you die is a very personal choice, but that choice has become distorted by some very perverse incentives. Doctors prescribe unnecessary tests and procedures to shield themselves from malpractice suits. The burden of paying for these expensive things falls on taxpayers and the insurance companies, not the families of the dying. The incentives are all wrong. And lest you think that this is a case where incentives don't matter, here's a study that found that people are more likely to die after payday.

There's a fine line between fatalistic acceptance of death and a race to extend life by a few days or even minutes, whatever the cost. I'm all for living a full, healthy and very long life. There are places I want to visit, languages I want to learn, experiences I want to try. But I wouldn't be able to do any of that drugged up to the eyeballs and breathing a machine. And I don't think that perspective is much different from most people.

People often suspect doctors of keeping all the best secrets for themselves. Well here's one that they really have kept: they've learned how to die. Maybe it's time to take a lesson from them.

Monday, December 5, 2011

The Google Baby Name Arms Race

The NYT has posted a piece on how parents are using Google to help them select baby names:
KALIA is a stripper name, but Kaleya is not, her parents-to-be concluded.

...

A search for Kalia pulled up several images of scantily clad women. “I didn’t want there to be a Google identity for her to wrestle with,” said Ms. Kaslofsky, a corporate investigator in San Francisco. So the couple, who wanted an uncommon name, came up with a creative spelling that sounds the same as kah-LEE-ah: Kaleya.

Another Google search didn’t raise any red flags, and thus a name was born. “The Kaleyas online were an illustrator of goth posters and a Spanish metal band,” she said.
It's arguably a pretty good idea to vet a potential baby name by Googling it before you commit. The Kalofskys don't want to give their child a name that would saddle her with an unwelcome stereotype. That seems fair. But how many parents Google their baby names, and why?
While there are no reliable statistics on the matter, a small survey on LilSugar, a parenting and pop culture site, found that 64 percent of respondents had Googled their baby’s name before settling on it.

Uniqueness seems to be a primary motive and has spurred an unspoken competition among parents to find the most original names, said Laura Wattenberg, author of “The Baby Name Wizard,” a guide for selecting a name. “Parents thinking of a baby name will type it in and say: ‘Oh, no, it’s taken. There are already three others with that name.’ ” 
There used to be a popular game (okay, popular amongst bored web developers, which may or may not have included Yours Truly) called Googlewhacking. The idea was simple - find a two word search phrase (no quotation marks allowed) which returned only one result from Google's web search.

As more people began to play this game it rapidly became more difficult, because they would post their winning phrases, thus guaranteeing that there were now at least two search results for that phrase. As a result, finding unique search phrases has gotten much more difficult and winners now tend towards the incredibly obscure. Where once you could 'win' with fetishized armadillo or panfish interrogation now you need to pull something like yooper radioimmunoassays out of your hat. That barely looks like English.

"Yooper Radioimmunoassays" would probably make a terrible baby name too, but at least the doting parents could rest easy that it would be unique, Google-wise. Temporarily, anyway. With over two billion people online and counting, the chance that somebody else out there shares a parent's predilections for odd nomenclature is skyrocketing.

Google-proofing your baby name is an arms race, one that is likely to drive parents towards increasingly outlandish names. Creative misspellings are likely only the tip of the iceberg. Just wait until numbers and punctuation get involved.

While there's an inarguable value in being unique you have to wonder if names are the best way to go about this. Maybe we should just assign everybody a GUID.

For Tom Noir's money, and the NYT's for that matter, these parents are selling a 'common' name short:
But maybe common names are more prudent. A recent study by the online security firm AVG found that 92 percent of children under 2 in the United States have some kind of online presence, whether a tagged photo, sonogram image or Facebook page. Life, it seems, begins not at birth but with online conception. And a child’s name is the link to that permanent record.

“When you name your baby, it’s a time of dreaming,” Ms. Wattenberg said. “No one stops and thinks, ‘What if one day my child does something embarrassing and wants to hide from it?’ ”
The truth is that an 'Elizabeth Jones' can hide comfortably behind the relative anonymity of millions of search result. But if you're Kalia Kaslofsky the only thing between your online profile and a Googling employer is a couple of strippers.